2016 Presidential Race

Politics On The Fly : New Hampshire Edition

  • FiveThirtyEight looks at why Chris Christie is in sixth place in most New Hampshire polls. He was an early favorite but never really gained much traction once he jumped into the race for the GOP nomination. Why? Nate Silver argues it is mainly because Christie never went after Donald Trump,

But for Christie, whose yard signs boast of a candidate “telling it like it is,” the biggest problem of all might be Trump. Trump has usurped the Christie brand of being the unrepentantly loudmouthed3 alpha male who will tell you the truths that other candidates avoid.

Christie has repeatedly declined to pointedly criticize Trump, including in November after Trump falsely claimed that news reports showed “thousands and thousands” of Muslims cheering in New Jersey after the Sept. 11 terror attacks. In debates, Christie has been more focused on attacking Rubio.

This may be because Christie and Trump have long been friends. Trump, of course, has been a longstanding fixture in Atlantic City, New Jersey, and the Trump Taj Mahal casino is still in business there, although its future is uncertain. Or it may because Christie was being tactical and thought having Trump at the top of the pack in Iowa would leave more room for a moderate Republican to emerge out of New Hampshire.

  • Domenico Montanaro argues that a vote for Jeb Bush is a vote for Donald Trump.

  • John Kasich has more than 300 Ohio volunteers in the state of New Hampshire right now. Kasich is all in on New Hampshire, one would think that is partly thanks to Kasich late entry into the race and was the only candidate to enter the race after Donald Trump. Trump sucked all the press a Kasich entry would of normally got. Fred Thompson and John Kasich are both great examples why you want to launch your campaign in the spring before an election year, not right before Labor Day. Kasich is paying for it.

  • First Read warns everyone not to expect anyone to drop out of the race after New Hampshire since most GOP candidates believe they can win South Carolina.

  • Voting starts in New Hampshire at 6 A.M tomorrow and will conclude at 7 P.M that night. Sanders and Trump are the favorites to win tomorrow but polling has not been very trustworthy in this election cycle nor the past few cycles.