Conway Leading in Kentucky


In the race to see who will become the next governor of the Bluegrass state, Democrat Jack Conway still leads Republican Matt Bevin by 5% in the latest Bluegrass Poll as the race enters the final month before Election Day. Independent candidate Drew Curtis is polling at 7%, seemingly more likely to hurt Bevin’s chance over Conway’s. The survey was conducted by SurveyUSA and it polled 701 likely Kentucky voters.

It is still a mystery why the Republican Governor Association pulled support for Bevin on Monday, a five point deficit with a month to go is not the end of the world. It seems that the likely reason for the RGA pullout is them growing increasingly frustrated at Bevin’s lack of self-funding and is not campaigning much. Indeed Jack Conway’s biggest ally in this race seems to be Bevin who has alienated the Republican establishment and is slowly disappearing from a close race for no good reason.

Conway also has another ally in current Governor Steve Beshear (D) who remains very popular in the state after eight years. The poll however does show some potential problems for Mr. Conway. 11 percent of voters consider themeselves very conservative and 16 percent of those voters have yet to make up their minds, while just 7 percent of those who consider themselves very liberal are undecided. Conway seems to have the airwaves to himself so blanketing the TV ads with negative Bevin infomercials will likely help him court some undecided voters. Conway also has a slight advantage with both men and women and in all age groups, a good sign for Conway since the male vote is usually bias toward the Republican candidate.