Which Poll is Correct in Iowa

Quinnipiac University is out with a new poll in Iowa that finds Bruce Braley (D) has made up ground against Joni Ernst (R), making the Iowa U.S. Senate race a 47% to 47% tie.

Or does Ernst really have a seven-point lead on Braley?

Men and women still are locked in a reverse gender gap as women back the Democratic man 51 – 42 percent, while men back the Republican woman 52 – 44 percent.

Braley leads 56 – 36 percent among those who already have voted.

One day before Election Day, 95 percent of Iowa likely voters who name a Senate candidate say their mind is made up, while 5 percent say they might change their mind.

“Iowa’s U.S. Senate race is a dead heat. The candidate who best gets his or her folks to the polls is going to win,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll.

Iowa likely voters remain divided on their feelings about the candidates:

* Ernst gets a 47 – 45 percent favorability;

* Braley gets a 43 – 45 percent likability score.