Early Ballots in Colorado now Favors Democrats

Nate Cohn has some good news for Democrats in Colorado as early ballots are now favoring Democrats but it could be too late unless a majority of Democrats are going to mail them in today.

Registered Democrats outnumbered registered Republicans by three points over 80,000 received ballots on Saturday. It was the first time that Democrats outpaced Republicans, and it was enough to narrow the Republican advantage to eight points, 40 to 32.

Part of the reason for Democratic success was that the tabulated ballots were disproportionately from Democratic jurisdictions. El Paso County, the largest Republican County, did not record any votes at all.

Nonetheless, there were signs that the Democrats were improving on their performance, even after accounting for their geographic edge. The 5,000 votes received in crucial Arapahoe County went Democratic by four points. The Democrats trailed by more than seven points among the ballots received before Saturday.

Democratic gains were bolstered by a continuation of the favorable demographic trends that had allowed them to whittle away at the G.O.P.’s percent margin over the last week. Voters under age 45 bumped up to 31 percent of returns.

Voters who didn’t participate in 2010 reached 33 percent of Saturday’s tallies, also a first.