Politics On The Fly

Politics On The Fly ~ October 7, 2014

Good Afternoon Everybody & Go San Francisco Giants!

GOV-CT: Some very good news was reported yesterday on the site for Democrats living in Connecticut, Governor Dan Malloy is finally leading in the polls after a batch of terrible polls and he is up by a healthy margin. In 2010 he narrowly beat Republican Tom Foley 50-49, now in the rematch Mr. Foley is proving to be a great GOP candidate once again (Democrats are likely glad he didn’t run for U.S Senate in 2010).

PPP finds Governor Malloy with a 43% to 35% lead and with that there is a new projection! Projected Seats: Democrats – 26 Republicans – 23 Independents – 1 Net Gain: Dems +1 Hold CT. The map will be updated shortly.

GOV-IL: The governor race in Illinois is also quickly trending away from Republicans. A new poll from We Ask America, finds that Governor Pat Quinn (D) is leading Bruce Rauner (R) by four points, 44% to 40%.

This represents two huge breaks for the Democrats in blue states, now Democrats have to hope Massachusetts will slowly trend back their way like CT and IL did over time. If indeed Massachusetts does come home for Democrats, Arkansas would be the only remaining endangered seat Democrats hold. Arkansas race could go either way but the feeling on the ground and the poll data both suggest that the GOP is ahead.

EARLY VOTING ALERT: Ohio and Indiana, you are now on the clock! Early voting starts today and in North Carolina and Iowa, you guys have been able to vote for a week plus already, get to the polls early and make sure you vote. You never know might come up on election day.

U.S Senate Debates: TV debates in various U.S Senate races happen tonight in Colorado, Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia and West Virginia. Go without saying that the debate in Colorado, North Carolina and Georgia are all going to be very vital for both candidates. Colorado for sure as the polls show this race is a dead heat.

Pennsylvania: A new Quinnipiac poll in Pennsylvania finds Tom Wolf (D) crushing Governor Tom Corbett (R) in the race for governor, 55% to 38%. Tom Wolf is at this point the most guaranteed party switch when it comes to the governor races on election night.

Iowa: Loras College: Joni Ernst (R): 42%, Bruce Braley (D) 42% (Sept.: 45-41 Braley).
While it is too early to suggests that Bruce Braley has the momentum in the race, there is one thing that is certain, the race is tightening and Braley is gaining ground on Ernst.

Kansas: Just wanted to make a note here, the media acts like Kansas is a tight race and Senator Pat Roberts “might” lose. This is incorrect, Roberts hasn’t been ahead in any poll since barely being ahead in mid-August. This is NOT a close race, Orman is leading by over 5% in all polls and Senator Roberts is losing, not might. Just wanted to clear that up.

Have a great day

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Categories: Politics On The Fly