Politics On The Fly

Politics On The Fly ~ October 1, 2014

Good Afternoon Everybody!!!! Welcome to October and the final full month before Election Day!

Oklahoma: While the media has been 100% focused on the few U.S Senate races that are actually competitive, the governor races across America is where the real interesting races are being played out. Polls in Oklahoma finds Governor Mary Fallin (R) under 50%, which is dangerous for any incumbent to be at.

Clarity Campaign Labs is out with a new poll that finds challenger Joe Dorman (D) losing by 47-45, a two point race that might be flying under the radar. RGA has spent $200,000 here in blood red Oklahoma, which suggest this race might just be competitive after all. Every dollar spent here is one less the RGA can spend on protecting weak seats they currently hold and go after weak seats held by Democrats.

Bill Clinton: Just days after becoming a grandfather, President Bill Clinton will be campaigning in Arkansas for Democrats in a series of four campaign stops across the state. He will also come to the aid of Pat Hays in congressional district 2, who has a great shot of ousting the GOP nominee in this Republican held seat.

Iowa: In the race for U.S Senate, Ernst (R) jumped out to a big lead against Bruce Braley (D) early last week but now polls suggest this race may be tightening up again.

Some good news for Democrats in the state is that Ernst big lead in polls last week might of been because the GOP had just finished an ad blitz of the state only a few days earlier and Democrat have more ads reserved for the final two weeks of the race which will no doubt help.

Other U.S Senate Polls: In Michigan the wheels have fell off for Republican Terri Lynn Land, who has not been seen in over a week.

Target-Insight: Gary Peters (D) 48%, Terri Lynn Land (R) 38%

North Carolina:
National Research: Kay Hagan (D) 46%, Thom Tillis (R) 41%, Sean Haugh (L) 4%

New Hampshire:
ARG: Jeanne Shaheen (D) 53%, Scott Brown (R) 43%

Florida: SurveyUSA has a new poll out that finds challenger Charlie Crist (D) has jumped out to a lead over Governor Rick Scott (R) in the race for governor, 46% to 40%.

Rick Scott is out with a new poll on behalf of the Florida Chamber of Commerce (which has officially endorsed Scott) which finds Scott ahead by four points. Which is a tighter race than the six point lead the found him with last month.

The polling is all across the board in this race, the winner likely won’t get over 2% victory.

Illinois: The comeback is complete in Illinois, after being down by double-digits, Governor Pat Quinn now finds himself winning in the race for governor.

Rasmussen Reports: Pat Quinn (D) 44%, Bruce Rauner (R) 42%.

Michigan: Target-Insight: Mark Schauer (D) 41%, Rick Snyder (R) 40%.

This race is extremely close but I would have to place my money on Mark Schauer winning and I will give you three reasons why.

1.) Michigan is a blue state and will come home for Democrats on Election Day, there is no red wave and the GOP isn’t very popular in Michigan.

2.) Governor Synder is not popular. He is famous nationally for signing in Michigan’s “rape insurance” bill and hasn’t been very effective at governing.

3.) The U.S Senate race will hold Synder down. Now that Democrats are likely to blow the U.S Senate race wide open, the state party can now focus on the governor race with one month to go. The larger of a lead Peters (D) jumps out to the better news it is for Schauer winning the governor seat.

Money: The DCCC has outraise the NRCC by $33 million this cycle. Democrats still lead the Republicans in the amount of donors while GOP lead in the amount the donor gives.